Old Friends Investing

Monday, June 11, 2018

HIBISCS Q3 FY18 Analysis - Part 2 @ 29 MAY 2018

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/203715566878990/

Part 1:

https://oldfriendsinvesting.blogspot.com/2018/05/hibiscs-q3-fy18-analysis-part-1-29-may.html

HISBISCS Q3 FY18 Analysis - Part 2

Future outlook forecasting

North Sabah

Jan -March 2018

Uptime =96%
Net oil production = 5674 bbl/day
Total oil sold = 287019 bbl
Average realised oil price = 73.51USD/bbl
Average OPEX per boe = 12.47 USD

Total Revenue = 287019 x 73.51 = USD21,098,766 = RM82,285,190

Since the OPEX is so low vs oil price. I assume the next profit margin would be 40-50%. Let assume 45%.

Therefore the estimated net profit margin = RM82,285,190 x 0.45 = RM37,028,335

Total outstanding share = 1,588,228,691

EPS from North Sabah alone = 2.33 sen per quarter.
HIBISCS owns 50% = 1.17 sen per quarter

HIBISCS current EPS ( excluded North Sabah) =0.7 sen per quarter.

Annualized: total EPS = (1.17+0.7) x 4 = 7.48 sens

PE= 25, the fair value share price should be RM1.87

Margin of safety 25% = RM1.40

PE 20, fair value RM1.49
PE 15, fair value RM1.12

These estimation based on Brent crude oil price average USD65 per barrel. North Sabah produces premium oil, and can sell higher price.

Future positive outlook:
HIBISCS going to complete another drill on June 2018 in Anarusia. After completion of this project, expected to boost Anarusia production double. I.e. 6000 bbl per day.
HIBISCS to improve operational efficieny in Norrth Sabah 6000 bbl per day
By 2019 total 12,000 bbl per day
Higher BRENT ride oil price around 70USD

p/s:

Oil and Gas Drilling P/E Ratios

As of January 2015, the average P/E ratio for the oil and gas drilling sector is 25.4. The industry average includes the metrics of large-, mid- and small-cap companies including Canadian Energy Services (CEU) with a P/E ratio of 20.98, Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) with a P/E ratio of 7.54 and Pioneer Energy Services Corp (PES) with a P/E ratio of 38.84.

Disclaimers:
This is not a buy/sell call. Trade at your own risks.

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

HIBISCS Q3 FY18 Analysis - Part 1@ 29 MAY 2018

重点:
Anarusia 净利有进步
但是 Segment Investment Holding and group activities 亏损25,891,000

为什么会有亏损?
因为公司在有negative goodwill 的情况下，趁机做clean-up.
把一次性的imparing loss, write off, deprecation 整理掉。好处是，这是一次性，长期不会再出现.
这是accounting 惯用手法，虽然write off 很多，但是有negative goodwill 加持,所以整体财报还是很漂亮。另外要说的是这样writeoff， deprecation 是对cash flow 没有影响的。只是accounting 的数字。

GKENT Valuation 简单估值 @ 19 May 2018

GKENT

简单估值

根据AR 2017:

GKENT 有
订单 order in book 5.6 billions 5,600,000,000

Equity 资本有 475,815,000 = 每股资本 = 0.84

Ordinary shares 股数有 563,269,000

2017 的Revenue 是 598,965,000. 也就是说order 比 yearly revenue 多九倍......
2017 净利率是 23%

算下5.6 billion 订单可以赚多少钱 5,600,000,000 ×23% ÷ 563269000 = 每股盈利= 2.37

算算: 0.84 + 2.37 = 3.21

如果用25% margin of safety = 2.41

今天18/5/2018 股价是1.58

太多零，弄到我头晕。帮忙看看有没有算错。。。。。。

🤔

其他因素：
1）water metering 市场老大.
2) selangor, penang, johor, negeri sembilan之前也和gkent买水表. 尤其是selangor penang, 应该跟希联政府关系不错下. 而且其他的也被希联拿下了......
3）Singapore, Hongkong 这些出名清廉的国家也有跟gkent买水表
4）gkent 手头的订单，应该会继续...看不到会被取消的理由...就算取消也有赔償...margin可能会減少，但问题不大，因为＂中间人费用“也会減少...
5）老板是生意人. 也会想办法和现任政府打好关系的....
6）gkent和德国Siemens有joint venture. 工程技术没问题。这些技术也难被其他本地公司取代.
7）除了MRT3, 也有其他工程合法，example：建医院. 这个希联政府不会取消的...
8）大选前，老马一直唱巫统把国家卖给中国. 所以估计如果有新的政府工程合约应该会给本地公司..那gkent会比以前更加容易拿到工程.....
9）gkent share buy back 10%. EPS 立即增加10%.
10）老板，董事估了大部分的股权. 某blog说是80%. 所以市场留通的较少. 估计现在抛货的大多是散户.只要老板不大量抛售，应该不会跌到那里去...

Disclaimers: This is for educational purposes. This is not a buy/sell/hold call. Trade at your own risk.

Friday, May 18, 2018

ANNJOO Revenue, Net Profit, EPS vs Malaysia Average Domestic Steel Bars Price @ 18th May 2018

Have a look before release of Q1 FY18 financial results next week....

Disclaimers:

For educational purposes. This is not a buy/sell/hold call. Trade at your own risks.

ANNJOO Share Price vs Malaysia Domestic Steel Bars Price @ 18th May 2018

Disclaimers: This is for educational purposes. This is not a buy/sell/hold call. Trade at your own risk.

Monday, May 14, 2018

SUPERLN @ 14TH May 2018

HIBISCS 估值

Q3 FY17 EPS = 0.45, BRENT CRUDE OIL USD55
Q4 FY17 EPS = 0.60, BRENT CRUDE OIL USD50
Q1 FY18 EPS = 0.73, BRENT CRUDE OIL USD53
Q2 FY18 EPS = 0.72, BRENT CRUDE OIL USD65

TTM EPS = 2.50
Last Closed Share Price = RM0.865. Hence PE = 0.865÷0.025= 34.6
However based on Industry PE 20 to 25. Average PE = 23

Forecasted Earning

Forecasted Q3 FY18 EPS = 0.72 x 70 ÷ 65= 0.78 (based on Crude oil price increase from 65USD to 70USD.)
Forecasted Q4 FY18 EPS

0.78 x 75 ÷70 ) X 2 = 1.66 ( based on Crude oil price increase from 70USD to 75USD, added newly Sabah field, claims double of production).

Forecasted FY19 full year EPS = 1.66 x 4 = 6.64
If base on current PE 34.6, forecasted share price in FY19 = RM2.30, which is too optimistic

🙄

If base on average industry PE 23X, forecasted share price in FY19 = RM1.66
Discounted 15% to present value = RM1.41
Applies margin of safety 25% = RM1.05, fair value

Current price RM0.865 definitely undervalued