HIBISCS Q3 FY18 Analysis - Part 2 @ 29 MAY 2018
Part 1:
HISBISCS Q3 FY18 Analysis - Part 2
Future outlook forecasting
North Sabah
Jan -March 2018
Uptime =96%
Net oil production = 5674 bbl/day
Total oil sold = 287019 bbl
Average realised oil price = 73.51USD/bbl
Average OPEX per boe = 12.47 USD
Net oil production = 5674 bbl/day
Total oil sold = 287019 bbl
Average realised oil price = 73.51USD/bbl
Average OPEX per boe = 12.47 USD
Total Revenue = 287019 x 73.51 = USD21,098,766 = RM82,285,190
Since the OPEX is so low vs oil price. I assume the next profit margin would be 40-50%. Let assume 45%.
Therefore the estimated net profit margin = RM82,285,190 x 0.45 = RM37,028,335
Total outstanding share = 1,588,228,691
EPS from North Sabah alone = 2.33 sen per quarter.
HIBISCS owns 50% = 1.17 sen per quarter
HIBISCS owns 50% = 1.17 sen per quarter
HIBISCS current EPS ( excluded North Sabah) =0.7 sen per quarter.
Annualized: total EPS = (1.17+0.7) x 4 = 7.48 sens
PE= 25, the fair value share price should be RM1.87
Margin of safety 25% = RM1.40
PE 20, fair value RM1.49
PE 15, fair value RM1.12
PE 15, fair value RM1.12
These estimation based on Brent crude oil price average USD65 per barrel. North Sabah produces premium oil, and can sell higher price.
Future positive outlook:
HIBISCS going to complete another drill on June 2018 in Anarusia. After completion of this project, expected to boost Anarusia production double. I.e. 6000 bbl per day.
HIBISCS to improve operational efficieny in Norrth Sabah 6000 bbl per day
By 2019 total 12,000 bbl per day
Higher BRENT ride oil price around 70USD
HIBISCS going to complete another drill on June 2018 in Anarusia. After completion of this project, expected to boost Anarusia production double. I.e. 6000 bbl per day.
HIBISCS to improve operational efficieny in Norrth Sabah 6000 bbl per day
By 2019 total 12,000 bbl per day
Higher BRENT ride oil price around 70USD
p/s:
Oil and Gas Drilling P/E Ratios
As of January 2015, the average P/E ratio for the oil and gas drilling sector is 25.4. The industry average includes the metrics of large-, mid- and small-cap companies including Canadian Energy Services (CEU) with a P/E ratio of 20.98, Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) with a P/E ratio of 7.54 and Pioneer Energy Services Corp (PES) with a P/E ratio of 38.84.
As of January 2015, the average P/E ratio for the oil and gas drilling sector is 25.4. The industry average includes the metrics of large-, mid- and small-cap companies including Canadian Energy Services (CEU) with a P/E ratio of 20.98, Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) with a P/E ratio of 7.54 and Pioneer Energy Services Corp (PES) with a P/E ratio of 38.84.
Disclaimers:
This is not a buy/sell call. Trade at your own risks.
This is not a buy/sell call. Trade at your own risks.
