HIBISCS 估值 @ 13th May 2018

HIBISCS 估值

Q3 FY17 EPS = 0.45, BRENT CRUDE OIL USD55
Q4 FY17 EPS = 0.60, BRENT CRUDE OIL USD50
Q1 FY18 EPS = 0.73, BRENT CRUDE OIL USD53
Q2 FY18 EPS = 0.72, BRENT CRUDE OIL USD65

TTM EPS = 2.50
Last Closed Share Price = RM0.865. Hence PE = 0.865÷0.025= 34.6
However based on Industry PE 20 to 25. Average PE = 23

Forecasted Earning

Forecasted Q3 FY18 EPS = 0.72 x 70 ÷ 65= 0.78 (based on Crude oil price increase from 65USD to 70USD.)
Forecasted Q4 FY18 EPS =( 0.78 x 75 ÷70 ) X 2 = 1.66 ( based on Crude oil price increase from 70USD to 75USD, added newly Sabah field, claims double of production).

Forecasted FY19 full year EPS = 1.66 x 4 = 6.64
If base on current PE 34.6, forecasted share price in FY19 = RM2.30, which is too optimistic 🙄🙄

If base on average industry PE 23X, forecasted share price in FY19 = RM1.66
Discounted 15% to present value = RM1.41
Applies margin of safety 25% = RM1.05, fair value

Current price RM0.865 definitely undervalued 😃😃😃 if CRUDE OIL price maintains at 75USD.
Also, every USD1 oil price changes will give impact 0.02 sens on HIBISCS share price.
PE = 23

In other words, current old price USD77 (2 USD higher than 75USD), the fair value of HIBISCS should be RM1.05 + 0.04 = RM1.09

Above just estimation. The upcoming Quarterly Q3 result will be announced end May 2018. Then, we can have better picture.

Disclaimers: This post is intended for educational purposes. This is not a buy/sell/hold call. Trade at your own risk.